Insights

This quarter's commentary looks at the start of the new administration: tariffs, governance, and realignment of relationships...

On December 8, 2024, we received news President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was overthrown by opposition forces. In a world consumed by geopolitical conflict, this was surprisingly good news...

The presidential campaign's numerous proposals involving tax cuts, special subsidies, and generous giveaways distracts from policies to augment economic growth and creating rewarding employment opportunities... 

Since our founding we have been enthusiastic advocates of emerging markets investment. In fixed income, investors can find higher yields from borrowers with solid creditworthiness in growing economies...

Confronted with higher-than-expected economic activity in the first quarter, should we worry about resurgent inflation and a reversal of the Fed’s policy direction?

Every year has unforeseen events that shape the narrative for financial markets, politics, and social commentary. In financial markets, 2023 might be most notable for the degree to which economists and strategists got it wrong...

China has been at the forefront of global events over the last twenty years, mostly for laudable developments, but more recently for concerning ones. As a result, China finds itself at a critical crossroad.

Artificial intelligence, in its broad definition, has been with us for some time most publicly through advancements like “Big Blue” with its predictive abilities and seemingly unlimited skill at complex endeavors like chess. With ChatGPT, many of us are getting a first hands-on glimpse at the evolution of computing and the ability of systems to move beyond the analysis and categorization of data.

As often happens, a crisis appears suddenly and, upon reflection, observers argue convincingly it never should have happened. March’s debacle at Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is a case in point. Hindsight allows for “Monday morning quarterbacking,” yet it occurs with the benefit of information that the non-participant commentator can use to criticize decisions that were taken. In SVB’s case critics likely intoned, “What were they thinking?”

With massive amounts of debt, the world’s governments have lost policy flexibility making it imperative that decision-makers begin to address their debt levels. For the U.S., the assumption that buyers will always exist for its mountain of debt might be challenged sooner than expected.

This year has been painful for investors. However, there may be a few reasons to look favorably at the future of bond investing due to the likely re-emergence of real yield. In our commentary, Eduardo Cortes, CIO, looks at the history of rates and inflation, where we are now and our expectations/opportunities for fixed income in the broader global asset allocation.

The first half of 2022 was a brutal time for investors in almost every asset class, and HY was no exception. Our 2nd quarter commentary examines the state of the high yield market – how we got here, where we are now and where we believe we’re going.

At the end of March, the yield curve inverted. While an inverted yield curve is viewed as a precursor to a recession, in this quarter's commentary, we look at what the yield curve tells us and the confluence of events that may affect expectations for 2022 and beyond.

During the first half of 2022, financial markets will likely face conflicting messages and economic data. Jammed supply chains, labor shortages, and rising commodity prices were all expected to recede once the pandemic-related distortions abated. The narrative shifted when the data overwhelmed the naysayers and the distortions remained unresolved.

What began as a gas crisis has morphed into an electricity crisis across Europe. Aswini Krishnan, CFA, Director, who covers the utilities and energy sectors for GIA offers her assessment of the crisis.